Since 2010, the crises in the euro area have put European affairs at the forefront of national political debates. As a first step to improve the functioning of the European Monetary Union, there has been a gradual deepening of integration through financial rescue mechanisms, increased economic and fiscal policy coordination. This has led to a broad discussion featuring both advocates of a more integrated Europe and proponents of a re-nationalization of key policy areas. Commentators frequently consider these debates as triggers for the rise of right-populist support in recent years. However, some right-wing populist parties actually lost voter support in the 2014 European elections, which challenges these assumptions. These facts raise the question how the electoral gains and losses of right-populist parties can actually be explained.
A detailed media analysis of national debates on European affairs from 2009 to 2014 in four countries and a Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) identify several decisive factors for the rise and fall of right-wing populist parties. While other studies suggest that right-populist parties’ advances are contingent upon socio-economic conditions or actual European policies, we find that it is key how moderate pro-European parties communicate European matters to the public. A cross-country analysis including Germany, the Netherlands, the UK and Sweden specifically demonstrates that right-wing populists can only increase their share of votes if moderate political actors have already legitimized populist campaign topics. The paper further shows which factors need to be given in order to then decrease public support for anti-EU right-wing populist forces.
